Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/17/2025

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on June 17, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, the matchup carries significant implications. The Marlins, struggling this season with a record of 28-42, are looking to rebound after a tough loss in yesterday's game against the Phillies. In contrast, the Phillies are riding high with a record of 43-29, showcasing their strong performance throughout the season.

On the mound, the Marlins will start Cal Quantrill, who has had a rough season, posting a 3-7 record and a troubling 5.61 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 307th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, with a 4.39 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. However, his average projections of 4.8 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed do not inspire confidence.

The Phillies counter with Jesus Luzardo, who boasts a much more favorable 6-2 record and a 4.23 ERA, ranking him as the 35th best starting pitcher. Luzardo's projections are solid, with an expected 5.9 innings pitched and only 2.6 earned runs allowed. His ability to strike out 6.6 batters on average today further enhances his appeal.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 7th best team in MLB, driven by a stellar 2nd best batting average. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 19th overall, struggling particularly with power as they rank 25th in home runs. This disparity in offensive firepower could play a critical role in the game's outcome.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the Marlins are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +170, reflecting a low implied team total of 3.36 runs. Conversely, the Phillies, favored at -200, have a projected team total of 4.64 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup, the Phillies appear well-positioned to capitalize on their advantages in this contest.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo has used his slider 6.9% more often this year (36.1%) than he did last year (29.2%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Cal Quantrill's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph decrease from last season's 93.8-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball batters like Dane Myers usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 39% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.13, Miami Marlins 3.99

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

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