Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/16/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit LoanDepot Park on June 16, 2025, they bring with them a solid 42-29 record, showcasing their status as one of the stronger teams this season. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins are struggling significantly, sitting at 28-41, and are seeking to turn their fortunes around, especially in this first matchup of the series.

On the mound, Sandy Alcantara is slated to start for the Marlins. Although he holds a respectable ranking of 47th among MLB’s starting pitchers, his performance this season has been disappointing. With a Win/Loss record of 3-7 and a troubling ERA of 7.14, Alcantara has struggled to keep runs off the board. Projections do suggest he might be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP of 4.51 projects he has been somewhat unlucky.

Conversely, the Phillies are expected to hand the ball to Mick Abel, who has had a promising start to his young career. The right-hander, with a 1-0 record and an impressive 2.35 ERA, seems poised to take advantage of a Marlins offense that ranks just 25th in home runs with only 61 this season. Abel's high flyball rate may work in his favor against a Miami lineup lacking power.

The current odds suggest a close contest, with the Marlins sitting at +110 and the Phillies at -130. Betting projections indicate the Phillies are slightly favored, with an implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to Miami's 4.05. Given their recent performance and the matchup dynamics, it is reasonable to anticipate the Phillies may have the upper hand as they look to maintain their strong standing in the National League East.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Mick Abel has put up a fantastic 2.35 ERA over his last 3 starts.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Sandy Alcantara is projected to record an average of 17.9 outs in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

From last season to this one, Xavier Edwards's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.1 mph to 84.6 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+13.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Dane Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.5, Miami Marlins 4.76

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mick Abel - Phillies
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

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