Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/26/2025

As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 26, 2025, both teams are in a tight race for playoff positioning, each sporting a record of 47-33. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the third game in their interleague series, with the Astros looking to build on their recent momentum after a strong performance in their last outing.

Projected starters Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sanchez are both having stellar seasons, ranking 13th and 14th respectively among MLB starting pitchers, according to the leading MLB projection system. Brown, a right-hander, boasts an impressive 1.88 ERA and an 8-3 record this season, although his 2.83 xFIP suggests some regression may be on the horizon. He has a high strikeout rate of 31.6%, which could be challenged by a Phillies offense that ranks as the 6th least strikeout-prone team in the league.

On the other hand, Sanchez has been no slouch, with a solid 2.87 ERA and a 6-2 record. He projects to pitch an average of 5.8 innings while allowing about 2.5 earned runs, which is commendable. However, both pitchers face unique challenges; Brown's ability to generate strikeouts may be mitigated against a disciplined Phillies lineup, while Sanchez's less-than-stellar strikeout numbers could be exploited by the Astros' potent offense.

The Astros' offense ranks 15th overall but shines with a 3rd best batting average in MLB, while the Phillies sit 8th in overall offensive rankings. The Astros' bullpen, ranked 17th, is average, while the Phillies' struggles are evident with a 29th place ranking. Given the Astros' favorable matchup and the current betting odds that favor them at -145, they may have the edge in this critical game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all starting pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez's fastball velocity of 94.7 mph grades out in the 77th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 41.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to the average pitcher, Hunter Brown has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Christian Walker is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 47% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.88, Houston Astros 4.16

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.