Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/25/2025

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on June 25, 2025, both teams are riding high with great seasons—Houston at 46-33 and Philadelphia at 47-32. This matchup becomes even more intriguing as the Astros recently won the first game of the series, setting the stage for a competitive second game.

The Astros will send Colton Gordon to the mound, who currently ranks as the 182nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Gordon's performance has been subpar, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. His tendency to give up 5.3 hits and 1.3 walks could become problematic against a strong Phillies lineup.

On the other hand, Philadelphia will counter with Zack Wheeler, an elite pitcher ranked 3rd overall. Wheeler projects to pitch 6.2 innings and is expected to give up just 2.1 earned runs. His ability to strike out an average of 6.9 batters makes him a tough challenge for the Astros' hitters.

Currently, the Astros are underdogs at +135, while the Phillies hold a moneyline of -155. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Phillies to capitalize on their superior pitching and offensive edge. Expect a tightly contested game as both teams vie for a crucial win in this interleague series.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering that groundball batters have a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Zack Wheeler and his 35.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today's matchup squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Schwarber has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 98.1-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball batters like Victor Caratini are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games at home (+13.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Otto Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.20 Units / 79% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.08, Houston Astros 3.5

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Colton Gordon - Astros

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