Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Phillies sitting at 47-31 and the Astros at 45-33. This game marks the beginning of their series, and with both teams in contention, the stakes are high.

Framber Valdez is projected to take the mound for the Astros. Valdez, currently ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown elite performance this season with an 8-4 record and a solid 3.09 ERA. However, his 3.65 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Valdez projects to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.

Ranger Suarez, the projected starter for the Phillies, has been impressive as well, boasting a 6-1 record and an excellent 2.20 ERA. Ranked 24th among MLB pitchers, Suarez's performance has been stellar, but his 3.37 xFIP indicates he might also be due for a regression. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.8 could give the Astros a chance to capitalize.

Offensively, the Astros rank 12th overall, with a particularly strong batting average of 3rd in MLB. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 7th best offense, highlighted by their 2nd place ranking in batting average. The Astros are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their competitive edge, particularly given the struggles of the Phillies' bullpen, which ranks 27th in MLB.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.9% more often this season (55%) than he did last year (49.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball bats like Johan Rojas tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez was rolling in his last GS and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Christian Walker is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 57 games (+12.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ranger Suarez has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 74% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.96, Houston Astros 4.23

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

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