Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 5/22/2025

The Colorado Rockies host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 22, 2025, in a matchup that highlights the stark contrast between the two teams’ seasons. The Rockies, with a dismal record of 8-41, are struggling significantly this year and are currently ranked 28th in the league in team offense. In contrast, the Phillies are enjoying a solid season at 31-18, sitting among the top teams with the 5th best offense in MLB, bolstered by a strong batting average that ranks 3rd overall.

In their last game, the Rockies suffered a loss to the Phillies, further extending their woes. On the mound, the Rockies will start German Marquez, who has had a rough season with a Win/Loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 8.78, positioning him as one of the least effective pitchers in the league. While Marquez has a 5.39 xFIP suggesting potential improvement, his projections today indicate he’ll allow an average of 3.7 earned runs and 6.7 hits.

Opposing him is Ranger Suarez, who has been a bright spot for the Phillies with a 2-0 record and a much more respectable ERA of 5.09. Suarez’s projections indicate he should give up just 2.9 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.3 batters. His ability as a low-walk pitcher could exploit the Rockies' lack of patience at the plate, as they rank 5th in the least walks drawn.

With the Game Total set at 11.0 runs, bettors should consider the implications of the Rockies’ shaky offense against a solid Phillies lineup. Despite the Rockies’ struggles, the projections suggest they could perform better than expected, especially given the favorable matchup against a groundball pitcher like Suarez. However, the Rockies remain heavy underdogs with a moneyline of +250.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (54.6% compared to 49.1% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year. His 46.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.4.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Philadelphia Phillies project for the most runs of all teams on the slate, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all SPs, German Marquez's fastball velocity of 94.7 mph is in the 80th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.77 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 115% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.94, Colorado Rockies 5.4

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • German Marquez - Rockies

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