Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field in what marks the opening game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season, holding an 8-38 record, while the Phillies are faring much better at 28-18. This matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Kyle Freeland for Colorado and Cristopher Sanchez for Philadelphia. Freeland, ranked as the 164th best starting pitcher in MLB, has yet to secure a win this year, with a dismal 0-6 record and a 6.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Sanchez has been a standout, sitting at 15th in the rankings with a strong 4-1 record and a superb 2.91 ERA.

Despite the Rockies' poor overall performance, they have a solid bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB, which could aid them in keeping the game competitive. However, their offense is among the worst, ranking 28th in the league, and they face a tough challenge against Sanchez, who boasts a 28.4% strikeout rate. The projections suggest the Rockies will struggle to capitalize on their few scoring opportunities, averaging only 3.82 runs for the game.

The Phillies' offense is significantly more potent, ranking 8th overall and 6th in batting average. With the Rockies’ lack of offensive firepower and Sanchez's strikeout ability against the league's highest strikeout rate offense, Philadelphia is heavily favored to take the win in this matchup. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially lopsided contest.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Colorado Rockies have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As a team, Philadelphia Phillies hitters have excelled when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking best in MLB.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.28, Colorado Rockies 4.83

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

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