Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies aim to extend their success against the Colorado Rockies in this National League matchup at Coors Field. The Phillies, boasting a solid 30-18 record, have shown strong form, particularly with their offense ranking 7th overall in MLB. In stark contrast, the Rockies struggle at 8-40, with the 28th worst offense in the league. Yesterday, the Phillies showcased their dominance by securing a convincing victory over the Rockies, a trend they hope to continue today.

The pitching matchup features Carson Palmquist for Colorado, who has had a shaky start to his season with an 0-1 record and a dreaded ERA of 11.25. Although he has an xFIP of 6.01, suggesting potential improvement, his projections indicate he may only pitch an average of 4.6 innings while allowing 3.4 earned runs today. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker, projected to start for Philadelphia, holds a more encouraging 1-3 record and a stellar 2.62 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.24 implies he might not be quite as effective as his surface numbers suggest. Walker's projections for today are also underwhelming, with an average of 4.2 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed.

The Rockies’ offense has struggled significantly, recently ranking 28th in team batting average and team home runs. The Phillies bullpen is ranked 23rd overall, compared to the Rockies' solid 9th place ranking. With a high Game Total of 11.5 runs, bettors will be closely watching how these two teams match up, especially given the Rockies' status as underdogs with a moneyline of +200.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's 2101.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.T. Realmuto has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Philadelphia Phillies are expected to record the most runs (6.68 on average) of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Mickey Moniak who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Taijuan Walker.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.68, Colorado Rockies 5.99

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies

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