Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal Interleague matchup at Progressive Field. Both teams enter the game with identical records of 23-16, showcasing a competitive spirit this season. The Phillies are riding a wave of momentum, bolstered by their elite starter, Zack Wheeler, who has been exceptional this year with a 3.35 ERA and a 2.49 xFIP, ranking him the 3rd best pitcher in MLB.

Cleveland's Luis Ortiz, projected to start, has struggled with a 5.30 ERA and a below-average 11.5% walk rate. His tendency to issue walks could be problematic against a patient Philadelphia offense that ranks 6th in the league in drawing walks. Additionally, Ortiz's projections indicate he might allow 5.1 hits and 2.6 earned runs today, which does not bode well for the Guardians.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 14th overall, but they have shown flashes of power with a respectable 11th rank in home runs. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 8th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 6th place standing in team batting average. This offensive prowess, alongside Wheeler's strong performance, places the Phillies as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 4.18 runs.

Despite the odds, the Guardians have an opportunity to capitalize on their strong bullpen, currently ranked 6th in MLB, which could provide a much-needed edge in a close game. Given the dynamics of this matchup, it will be intriguing to see if Cleveland can pull off an upset against the favored Phillies.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zack Wheeler has utilized his non-fastballs 5.1% more often this season (44.7%) than he did last season (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 42.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all starting pitchers, Luis L. Ortiz's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Jones is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Jones, Gabriel Arias, Bo Naylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.69, Cleveland Guardians 3.61

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.