Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/29/2025

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash once again at Truist Park on June 29, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Braves, currently struggling at 38-44, are well below average this season, while the Phillies come in with a solid 48-35 record, indicating a great year so far.

In this game, the Braves are projected to start Spencer Strider, who, despite being ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season. Strider's ERA of 4.07 is above average, and while he projects to allow 2.3 earned runs and strike out 7.2 batters today, he also has concerning averages of 4.7 hits and 1.6 walks allowed. The Braves' offense, ranking 21st in MLB, has struggled to support their pitching, making their task even tougher.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Phillies, boasting an impressive 2.08 ERA and a 6-2 record over 10 starts this year. With a ranking of 23rd among starting pitchers, he projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs while striking out 5.0 batters. While his walk rate is low, the Braves' high walk percentage could test Suarez's control, making for an intriguing matchup.

Given the Braves' high implied team total of 4.54 runs, the betting lines suggest they might find a way to outscore the Phillies, despite their recent performance. The game total stands at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a competitive showdown.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Kyle Schwarber has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph dropping to 82.8-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Strider is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 67 games (+9.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.35 Units / 44% ROI)
• Ranger Suarez has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 51% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.42, Atlanta Braves 4.89

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Spencer Strider - Braves

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