Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/28/2025

As the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 28, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in their National League East rivalry. The Braves enter this matchup with a less-than-stellar record of 37-44, struggling to find their footing this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies, boasting a strong 48-34 record, have been one of the more competitive teams this year.

In their last outing, the Braves fell to the Phillies, adding to their frustrations this season. Atlanta is projected to send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Schwellenbach has performed admirably, ranking as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, with a solid 6-4 record and a remarkable ERA of 3.21. However, his projected 5.8 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed could expose the Braves’ vulnerabilities, especially considering his tendency to allow 5.6 hits and 1.1 walks per game, both of which are concerning.

The Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who, while having a good season with a 7-3 record, has an ERA of 4.08, suggesting he may have been unlucky despite ranking as the 40th best pitcher. Luzardo’s projections indicate he could struggle with 3.0 earned runs allowed and nearly 1.8 walks, but his expected performance shows he may bounce back.

Offensively, the Braves rank 18th in MLB but struggle with a batting average ranking of 20th, while the Phillies perform significantly better, sitting at 10th overall in offensive rankings. With the Braves favored at a moneyline of -155 and an implied team total of 4.66 runs, they’ll look to capitalize on scoring opportunities against Luzardo. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair that may hinge on pitching performances.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has used his off-speed and breaking balls 9.3% less often this season (54.8%) than he did last season (64.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In comparison to his 91.3-mph average last year, Matt Olson's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.9 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order profiles as the 5th-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 80 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.26, Atlanta Braves 5.1

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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