Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 7/13/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Philadelphia Phillies fans are in for an intriguing matchup on July 13, 2024, as their team, currently sitting at 61-33, takes on the struggling Oakland Athletics (36-60) at Citizens Bank Park. This interleague contest is the second game in the series, and the Phillies will look to continue their dominant season against an Athletics team that has found little success this year.

Tyler Phillips will be on the mound for Philadelphia. Although Phillips has only made one bullpen appearance this season, he boasts an impressive ERA of 2.25###101. However, his underlying stats suggest he's been a bit unlucky, with a 1.14 xFIP indicating potential for even better performance. Facing an Athletics lineup ranked 26th in overall offense and 28th in team batting average, Phillips has a good opportunity to shine. Notably, Phillips is a high-strikeout pitcher (46.7 K% this year), which could further exploit the Athletics' high strikeout rate (#2 in MLB).

On the other side, Mitch Spence will start for Oakland. Spence has been a workhorse out of the bullpen with a 5-5 record and a 4.29 ERA this year. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been unlucky, with a 3.77 xERA. However, his projections for the game aren't optimistic; he is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs and 6.0 hits over 5.2 innings. Facing the Phillies' potent lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB in overall offense, team batting average, and 4th in stolen bases, Spence will have his hands full.

Brandon Marsh has been a standout for the Phillies recently, hitting .333 with a 1.233 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Brent Rooker has been the bright spot for Oakland, hitting .429 with a 1.185 OPS in his last six games, although the Athletics' offensive woes persist.

The Phillies’ superior bullpen, which ranks 2nd in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, further tilts the scales in their favor against the Athletics’ 14th-ranked bullpen. Given the Phillies' strong lineup and bullpen, they are significant favorites with an implied win probability of 63%.

All signs point to a competitive edge for the Phillies, who aim to keep their strong season rolling against the Athletics. Fans and bettors can expect a high-scoring affair with a game total set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence projects for 3.14 earned runs in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Tyler Phillips will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Johan Rojas's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.3-mph figure last year has lowered to 84.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Garrett Stubbs (the Phillies's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 74 games (+18.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.2

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