Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/22/2024

Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 100, Yankees -1.5 -120
• Money Line: Athletics 205, Yankees -240
• Total (Over/Under): 8 -110

Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 32%
• New York Yankees - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 28.33%
• New York Yankees - 71.67%

Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the New York Yankees will take on the Oakland Athletics at Yankee Stadium on April 22, 2024. The Yankees, with a season record of 15-7, are having a great season, while the Athletics are struggling with a record of 8-14.

The Yankees, being the home team, have the advantage of playing at their own stadium. They are projected to start the left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Rodon is ranked as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Athletics are projected to start JP Sears, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Rodon has started four games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.66, which is considered good. However, his 5.13 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Sears, on the other hand, has also started four games with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.35, which is average. His 6.18 xFIP indicates that he may regress and perform worse in future games.

Based on the projections, Rodon is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters on average. However, he is also projected to allow 4.0 hits and 1.9 walks, which are considered weak points in his performance. Sears, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 4.3 batters on average. He is also expected to allow 4.9 hits and 2.2 walks, which are areas of concern.

The Yankees have a solid offense, ranking 11th best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average is ranked 29th, indicating a weakness in that area. They excel in team home runs, ranking 8th, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 20th. On the other hand, the Athletics have a struggling offense, ranking 27th in MLB. Their team batting average is ranked last, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Yankees have the advantage, ranking 8th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Athletics have a weaker bullpen, ranking 24th.

Considering the team strengths and projections, the Yankees are the clear favorites in this game. They have a high implied team total of 4.80 runs, while the Athletics have a low implied team total of 3.20 runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The New York Yankees have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against JP Sears in today's game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Brent Rooker tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Brent Rooker is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 133 games (+11.73 Units / 8% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin has only hit the Total Bases Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (-3.35 Units / -38% ROI)

Athletics vs Yankees Prediction: Athletics 3.42 - Yankees 5.29

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