Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 8/14/2024

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on August 14, 2024, they find themselves in a tight race with the season winding down. At 61-58, the Mets sit just above .500, while the Athletics are struggling at 51-69. After a disappointing 9-4 loss to the Athletics in their previous meeting yesterday, the Mets will look to bounce back in the second game of this interleague series.

The matchup features David Peterson, who has had a solid season with a 3.34 ERA and a 6-1 record over 12 starts. While Peterson's advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, his low strikeout rate could play to his advantage against the Athletics, who rank 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. The left-handed Peterson's high groundball rate also poses a challenge for Oakland's powerful offense, which has hit 132 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB.

On the other side, Joey Estes takes the mound for the Athletics. Despite a 4.70 ERA, Estes's overall performance has been underwhelming, and his high flyball rate may prove detrimental against a Mets lineup that excels in power, ranking 4th in home runs. With the projections indicating a high team total of 4.81 runs for the Mets, they are favored to capitalize on Estes's weaknesses.

The Mets' best hitter, Francisco Lindor, has been on a tear lately, boasting a .423 batting average over the past week. If he continues his hot streak, he could be a key factor in helping the Mets turn around their fortunes after yesterday's loss. The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Mets are set up nicely for this matchup, making them a team to watch as they seek to regain their winning form.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Over his last 3 outings, Joey Estes has seen a substantial drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2391 rpm over the entire season to 2341 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Extreme flyball batters like Brent Rooker generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball batters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, David Peterson and his 49.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today facing 0 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos has big-time power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Joey Estes is a pitch-to-contact type (21st percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.70 Units / 28% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.95 vs New York Mets 4.75

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