Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Game 1 Prediction & Picks 6/16/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Game 1 Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Athletics vs Twins Game 1 Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Game 1 Betting Preview

On June 16, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will host the Oakland Athletics at Target Field in the first game of a double-header. This American League matchup features two contrasting teams: the Twins, who are having an above-average season with a 38-32 record, and the Athletics, who are struggling with a dismal 26-46 record. As the third game in the series, this contest carries substantial significance for the Twins, who are pushing to solidify their position in the playoff hunt.

Minnesota will send right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober to the mound. Ober carries a 5-4 record and a lackluster 5.13 ERA, though his 4.12 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see improvement. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Ober is ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher, and he projects to provide solid innings today, with an average of 5.6 innings pitched and 6.7 strikeouts.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with left-hander JP Sears, whose 4-5 record and 4.02 ERA seem respectable. However, his 4.82 xFIP hints at potential regression. Sears is projected to allow 3.5 earned runs and strike out 4.1 batters over an average of 5.3 innings, which could spell trouble against a capable Twins lineup.

The Twins' offense, ranked 12th in the league, boasts a blend of power and average. They rank 9th in home runs but lag with a 17th in batting average and 23rd in stolen bases. Carlos Correa has been the Twins’ standout hitter over the last week, boasting a scorching .577 batting average and 1.351 OPS.

Conversely, the Athletics' offense has been anemic, ranked 28th overall and 29th in batting average. However, they have surprising power, ranking 5th in home runs. Tyler Soderstrom has been their hot bat recently, with a .318 average and three home runs over the past seven games.

One potential advantage for Oakland is that Ober is a high-flyball pitcher (42% FB rate), which could play into the Athletics' power game. This dynamic may be pivotal given the relative strengths and weaknesses of both teams' hitters and pitchers.

With the Twins having the superior bullpen, ranked 10th, compared to the Athletics' 5th, this game may hinge on how well the starters perform and whether the Minnesota lineup can exploit Sears’ vulnerabilities. As they aim to keep their playoff aspirations alive, the Twins will look to gain an edge in this critical matchup.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics have 7 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (J.D. Davis, Seth Brown, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.91 vs Minnesota Twins 4.74

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