Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 6/14/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins (37-32) host the Oakland Athletics (26-45) for the second game of their series at Target Field on June 14, 2024. The Twins are having an above-average season, while the Athletics are in the midst of a tough campaign, currently holding one of the worst records in MLB.

Minnesota is coming off a win yesterday, bolstered by a strong bullpen that ranks 7th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Twins also have a solid offensive lineup, sitting 12th overall, driven by their 10th-ranked home run power. Meanwhile, Oakland's offense ranks 27th, struggling with consistency despite being 5th in home runs.

On the mound for the Twins will be Simeon Woods Richard, a right-hander with a 2.84 ERA this season. Despite his excellent ERA, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he has been a bit lucky and might regress. Woods Richard is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters, which are average numbers. His high-flyball tendency could be a concern against Oakland's powerful lineup.

Oakland will counter with Mitch Spence, also a right-hander, who has a 3.68 ERA. Despite his unimpressive ERA, Spence's 3.16 FIP indicates he might be due for better results. However, the projections are not favorable for him, as he is expected to pitch only 4.7 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs. His 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks projections are also concerning.

The Twins' lineup has been led recently by Manuel Margot, who has been on fire over the last week with a .500 batting average and 1.515 OPS. Oakland's Tyler Soderstrom has been their standout, hitting .318 with 3 home runs and 6 RBIs in the last seven days.

With the Twins favored at -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, they have the upper hand. However, given the Athletics' power and Woods Richard's flyball tendencies, Oakland could make things interesting. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting an average scoring affair.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Seth Brown's true offensive ability to be a .312, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .057 gap between that figure and his actual .255 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Byron Buxton is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+5.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+7.35 Units / 12% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.27 vs Minnesota Twins 4.85

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.