Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/26/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics are set to face off again on July 26, 2024, at Angel Stadium. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels holding a 45-58 record and the Athletics sitting at 42-63. This American League West matchup will see Carson Fulmer starting for the Angels and Paul Blackburn taking the mound for the Athletics.

In their last game on July 25, the Athletics edged out the Angels with a 6-5 victory in a tightly contested affair. The betting markets had anticipated a close game, and they were not disappointed. The Angels were slight favorites with a Moneyline price of -115, implying a 51% win probability, while the Athletics were at -105, implying a 49% win probability.

Fulmer, who has an ERA of 3.66 this season, has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.37 xFIP. He is projected to pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.3 hits, and 1.7 walks while striking out 4.4 batters. Fulmer's performance has been inconsistent, and his advanced stats suggest he might struggle against the Athletics' power-hitting lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB in home runs.

Blackburn, with a 4.11 ERA, also appears to have been lucky, given his 4.61 xERA. The projections suggest he will pitch 3.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, 4.0 hits, and 1.3 walks while striking out 3.1 batters. Blackburn's recent form has been shaky, as he was roughed up in his last start on May 10, allowing 7 earned runs over 4 innings.

Offensively, the Angels rank 24th in MLB, struggling in most categories except stolen bases, where they sit 7th. Meanwhile, the Athletics have been average overall, ranking 18th in offense but excelling in power with a 4th place ranking in home runs. Brent Rooker has been a standout for Oakland, boasting a .289 batting average and 24 home runs this season.

Despite the Athletics being favored by the betting markets with a Moneyline of -130, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a 53% chance to win. This discrepancy suggests there may be value in betting on the Angels, who are currently listed at +110.

With both teams' bullpens ranking poorly—25th for the Angels and 22nd for the Athletics—expect a high-scoring game. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, and the projections agree, forecasting over 5 runs for each team. This matchup promises to be another close battle, with both teams looking to gain some momentum in a disappointing season.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Brent Rooker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last season's 94.9-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 games started, Carson Fulmer has suffered a significant decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2265 rpm over the whole season to 2188 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

In terms of his batting average, Jo Adell has suffered from bad luck this year. His .194 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+10.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 5.13 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.14

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.