Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on September 11, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial matchup in the American League West. The Astros, currently holding a record of 77-67, are having an above-average season and sit in a solid position for a Wild Card spot. In contrast, the Athletics are struggling with a 63-82 record, marking a disappointing year for the team.

In their previous encounter just yesterday, the Astros fell to the Athletics by a close score of 4-3, a result that likely stings given their aspirations. The Astros are projected to start right-hander Hunter Brown, who has been effective this season with an 11-7 record and a stellar ERA of 3.41. Brown's recent performance has been impressive; in his last start, he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs, striking out six batters. His ability to induce ground balls (48% GB%) could be crucial against the Athletics, who boast a powerful offense with 182 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB.

On the other side, the Athletics will send out Joey Estes, who has struggled this year. With a record of 6-7 and an ERA of 4.46, he is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league. The projections suggest that Estes will have a tough time against an Astros lineup that ranks 8th in MLB offensively and 3rd in team batting average.

The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Astros have a high implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the Athletics are projected for just 3.23 runs. With a solid pitcher on the mound and a powerful offense backing him, the Astros could very well turn the tables after yesterday's loss.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing 6 same-handed bats today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Houston Astros projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 124 games (+15.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 52% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+13.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.98 vs Houston Astros 5.32

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