Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 10, 2024, the stakes are high. The Astros, currently sitting at 77-66, are in a solid position in the American League West but are coming off a disappointing loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, where they fell 12-6. In contrast, the Athletics, with a record of 62-82, have also struggled recently, suffering a 9-1 defeat at the hands of the Detroit Tigers.

This matchup marks the beginning of a crucial series for the Astros, who are looking to solidify their playoff position. Spencer Arrighetti is slated to take the mound for Houston. Although his 7-12 record and 4.82 ERA suggest a below-average season, advanced metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.10 xFIP shows potential for improvement. Arrighetti is a high-strikeout pitcher, facing an Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage.

On the other side, Osvaldo Bido will start for Oakland. Bido has had a decent season with a 3.41 ERA, but his 4.62 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this level of performance. His tendency to walk batters could be problematic against an Astros offense that ranks 8th in MLB and is known for its patience at the plate, ranking 4th in the fewest walks taken.

The projections favor the Astros, expecting them to score around 5.10 runs against Bido’s average performance, while the Athletics are projected to manage about 4.40 runs. With the Astros' potent offense, led by Yordan Alvarez—who boasts a .311 batting average and 32 home runs—the stage is set for a compelling opener in this series.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

With a 1.08 gap between Osvaldo Bido's 3.41 ERA and his 4.49 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brent Rooker has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tristan Gray, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

In his previous outing, Spencer Arrighetti didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 0 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros bats as a unit rank 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 143 games (+16.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+11.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+15.35 Units / 48% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.4 vs Houston Astros 5.22

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