Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 4/20/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Wood - Athletics
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -150, Guardians -1.5 130
• Money Line: Athletics 135, Guardians -160
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 41%
• Cleveland Guardians - 59%

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

Pitcher Analysis: Logan Allen has a win/loss record of 2-0 this season, with an ERA of 5.06. However, his 3.98 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Alex Wood, on the other hand, has a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 8.10. His 5.51 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky, and there is potential for improvement.

Team Offenses: The Guardians have an average-ranked offense, ranking 13th in MLB in terms of overall performance. However, they rank poorly in team home runs, ranking 30th out of 30 teams. On the other hand, the Athletics have struggled offensively, ranking 28th overall and 30th in team batting average.

Implied Win Probability: The Guardians are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, indicating an implied win probability of 59%. The Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

Based on the information provided, the Guardians have the advantage in this matchup. With their strong record and better offensive performance, they are favored to win against the struggling Athletics. However, the starting pitchers' recent performance and potential improvements should be taken into account when assessing the outcome of the game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Alex Wood in the 21st percentile among all SPs in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan Noda stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Projected catcher Shea Langeliers profiles as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Josh Naylor's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Athletics vs Guardians Prediction: Athletics 4.03 - Guardians 4.87

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