Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 4/19/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Boyle - Athletics
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -140, Guardians -1.5 120
• Money Line: Athletics 145, Guardians -170
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 39%
• Cleveland Guardians - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 39.6%
• Cleveland Guardians - 60.4%

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will be hosting the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field. This American League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams. The Guardians, with a record of 13-6, are having a great season, while the Athletics, with a record of 8-11, are struggling.

The Guardians are projected to start Triston McKenzie, a right-handed pitcher who has started three games this year. McKenzie has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.23, which is considered to be horrible. His xFIP, a peripheral indicator of performance, is 7.74, suggesting that he has been lucky this year and is likely to perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start Joe Boyle, another right-handed pitcher who has also started three games this year. Boyle has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.68, also considered to be horrible. However, his xFIP is 4.46, indicating that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Guardians rank as the 13th best team in MLB this season, while the Athletics rank as the 28th best. The Guardians have a higher team batting average, but rank last in team home runs. The Athletics, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league.

According to the current odds, the Guardians are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% chance of winning. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, giving them a 39% chance of winning. The Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the Athletics have a lower implied team total of 3.73 runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Shea Langeliers has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Triston McKenzie doesn't generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Langeliers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Shea Langeliers (the Athletics's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Recording 12.4 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Triston McKenzie places in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Bo Naylor's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 27.39 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.52 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Cleveland Guardians hitters jointly grade out 30th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when using their 5.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 142 games (+17.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.74 Units / 44% ROI)
• Ryan Noda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Athletics vs Guardians Prediction: Athletics 3.89 - Guardians 4.61

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