Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics
  • Fernando Cruz - Reds

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Oakland Athletics on August 28, 2024, the stakes are heightened following yesterday's thrilling contest where Oakland edged Cincinnati 5-4. Both teams are struggling this season; the Reds sit at 63-69, while the Athletics are slightly worse at 57-75. Despite their below-average records, the Reds are projected to score 5.43 runs today, a significant jump from their current team total of 5.00 runs, according to leading MLB projection system THE BAT X.

On the mound, Cincinnati's Fernando Cruz will take the ball, looking to bounce back from a challenging year. Although he has an average strikeout rate of 34.4%, Cruz has struggled with a 5.30 ERA and a win-loss record of 3-8. However, he faces an Oakland lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving Cruz an edge.

Opposing him will be Osvaldo Bido, who boasts a solid 3.24 ERA this season but may be due for regression as his 4.78 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate. Bido’s last start was impressive, as he pitched 5 innings allowing just 1 earned run. However, his overall projection of allowing 2.9 earned runs today suggests a less favorable matchup against a Reds offense that, while ranking 17th overall, is capable of turning things around with players like Tyler Stephenson heating up recently.

With a high Game Total set at 10.0 runs, betting markets see this as a close contest, reflected in the current moneyline of -110 for both teams. As the Reds look to avenge their recent loss and capitalize on their home advantage, they may just edge out the Athletics in what promises to be a competitive game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Osvaldo Bido is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Fernando Cruz encounters a tough challenge being matched up with 6 bats in the projected offense who share his handedness in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dominic Smith has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+11.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.55 Units / 23% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 5.57 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.38

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