Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics face off on September 15, 2024, it's a matchup of two teams struggling in the standings. The White Sox, sitting at 34-115, are experiencing one of the worst seasons in franchise history, while the Athletics, with a record of 65-84, are also having a disappointing year. In their last game, the White Sox did manage to come away with a win to help dull the pain of what has been a miserable campaign.

On the mound, Chicago will send Sean Burke to the hill. Burke's performance will be crucial, especially against an Athletics lineup that has shown power, ranking 5th in MLB for home runs this season. Meanwhile, Oakland counters with JP Sears, a lefty who has had an up-and-down year. While Sears has a respectable ERA of 4.18, his xFIP of 4.82 indicates that he may have been riding some good fortune.

Interestingly, the projections see the White Sox as a more viable contender than the betting odds suggest, with a projected win probability of 44%. This could indicate potential value for bettors willing to take a chance on the underdog. The Athletics, despite their struggles, are favored with an implied win probability of 63%, but with the White Sox's recent performances, they may find ways to exploit any weaknesses in Oakland's pitching.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting an average expectation for offense. However, with the White Sox's 30th ranked offense in MLB, it may be tough for them to reach that total. If Burke can limit the damage and the White Sox can capitalize on any mistakes from Sears, this game could be closer than expected.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears's 91.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.1-mph decrease from last season's 92.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

As it relates to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has been lucky this year. His 31.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 17.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Lenyn Sosa has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Korey Lee in the 5th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• Seth Brown has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 5.18 vs Chicago White Sox 4.31

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