Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 17, 2024, both teams are looking to find their footing in what has been a challenging season. The Cubs currently sit with a record of 77-73, putting them in a position where they are fighting to secure a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Athletics, at 65-86, have struggled significantly this year and are not in contention for a playoff berth. In their last matchup on September 16, the Cubs triumphed decisively over the Athletics, winning 9-2, which adds to the pressure on Oakland as they look to rebound.

Both teams will send out pitchers with contrasting recent performances. Jordan Wicks is projected to start for the Cubs, and despite ranking as the 171st best starting pitcher in MLB, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been unlucky this season. Wicks's ERA stands at 5.27, but his xFIP of 4.55 indicates room for improvement. He will be looking to bounce back after a rough outing, where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings pitched in his last start.

On the other side, Mitch Spence takes the mound for the Athletics. Spence has been a reliable option, with an ERA of 4.33 this season and a solid performance in his previous outing, where he allowed only 2 earned runs over 7 innings. However, he is still regarded as one of the weaker pitchers in the league.

The Cubs' offense ranks 13th overall, with Ian Happ leading the charge, while the Athletics have found some power, ranking 5th in home runs. However, the Cubs' lineup has been more consistent, and the projections favor them as they look to capitalize on their recent success. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams aim to gain momentum.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's 90.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 6th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.J. Bleday will probably have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Generating 12.6 outs per outing this year on average, Jordan Wicks falls in the 13th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

As it relates to his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck this year. His .275 BA has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 away games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.89 vs Chicago Cubs 4.24

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