Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds & Picks – 6/28/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Oakland Athletics prepare to square off on June 28, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around. The Diamondbacks, sitting at 39-42, are having a below-average season, while the Athletics, with a woeful 29-54 record, are struggling mightily.

The Diamondbacks will send right-hander Slade Cecconi to the mound. Cecconi has had a rough season with a 5.90 ERA and a 2-5 record over 10 starts. However, his 4.52 xFIP, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Cecconi is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters, which are average numbers. His matchup against the Athletics might be favorable, considering Oakland's offense ranks 26th in MLB and has the 2nd most strikeouts, which could play into Cecconi's hands.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with left-hander JP Sears. Sears has a 4-6 record with a 4.25 ERA over 15 starts, but his 5.08 xFIP suggests he might regress. He is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters, which are below-average numbers. Sears faces a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 7th in MLB, making his task even more challenging.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been led recently by Ketel Marte, who has been on fire over the last week with a .313 batting average, two home runs, and a 1.139 OPS. The Athletics' Brent Rooker has been their standout, hitting .273 with a home run and an .833 OPS over the last week.

The Diamondbacks are favored to win with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability. Their offense, which ranks 7th in MLB, should be able to capitalize on Sears' vulnerabilities. Conversely, the Athletics are underdogs with a +130 moneyline and a 42% win probability, relying on their 3rd-ranked bullpen to keep them in the game.

This interleague matchup might not feature the best teams in terms of records, but it offers intriguing elements, especially with the Diamondbacks' potent offense facing one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. Expect Arizona to leverage their offensive prowess to secure a win in the series opener.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. JP Sears has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 9.5% more often this season (59.2%) than he did last season (49.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Slade Cecconi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

In his last outing, Slade Cecconi performed well and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Eugenio Suarez has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Herrera (the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 16 away games (+7.45 Units / 47% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.72 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.21

Get daily MLB picks here.