Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 8/10/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on August 10, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Blue Jays sit with a record of 54-62, while the Athletics have an even tougher season at 48-69. Both teams are unlikely to contend for a playoff spot, making this matchup more about pride than postseason aspirations.

In their last game, the Blue Jays showcased some strong pitching in a 3-1 win over the A's. The Athletics have been consistently underwhelming, leading to their current position at the bottom of the standings. As these teams meet for the second game of their series at Rogers Centre, the stakes may be low, but the competition remains fierce.

The starting pitchers for this matchup provide an interesting contrast. Toronto's Yariel Rodriguez, despite being ranked as the 124th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has shown flashes of effectiveness this season, boasting a solid ERA of 3.77. However, the projections suggest he might be due for a regression, as his xFIP of 4.34 indicates a bit of luck on his side. Rodriguez projects to pitch 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, but he struggles with allowing an alarming 3.9 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

On the flip side, Oakland's Osvaldo Bido is projected to have a rough outing, as he is among the worst pitchers in the league. His ERA stands at 4.64 with a concerning xFIP of 5.21, suggesting he too has benefited from good fortune. Bido will likely pitch 4.7 innings, allowing around 2.6 earned runs, but he faces a Blue Jays offense that has struggled significantly this season.

With the Blue Jays having a higher implied team total of 4.87 runs, their chances of putting together a solid offensive performance rest on the shoulders of their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been on a hot streak lately. If Toronto can capitalize on Bido's weaknesses, they may very well break out of their recent slump and secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Because flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Osvaldo Bido (36.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brent Rooker's true offensive talent to be a .355, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .044 deviation between that figure and his actual .399 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected offense, Yariel Rodriguez figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Toronto Blue Jays batters jointly rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball this year ( 5th-worst) as far as their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 38 games (+19.15 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.13 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.87

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