Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 8/11/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on August 11, 2024, the stakes are clear for both teams, even if the playoffs are out of reach. The Blue Jays, sitting at 54-63, have had a below-average season, while the Athletics have struggled even more, posting a 49-69 record. This matchup marks the third game of their series, and both teams are looking to gain some momentum.

In their previous game, the Blue Jays fell short, unable to capitalize on their chances, while the Athletics got by with a win despite scoring just one run. Both teams have been inconsistent, but the Blue Jays will rely on Chris Bassitt, who projects to deliver a solid outing today. With an ERA of 3.95, Bassitt is ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing an above-average ability. He averages 6.2 innings per start and projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs, which could give Toronto an edge against a struggling Athletics offense that ranks 21st overall.

On the other hand, Oakland will trot out JP Sears, whose ERA of 4.35 reflects an average performance but comes with high flyball tendencies. Facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 27th in home runs, there’s a possibility the Athletics can limit damage, but Sears has proven to be a low-strikeout pitcher, which could be problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that doesn’t strike out often.

Given Bassitt's favorable projections and the Blue Jays’ status as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -150, it seems the odds favor Toronto in this one. However, the total for the game is set at a reasonable 8.5 runs, emphasizing that runs may be hard to come by. As such, the matchup will likely hinge on whether the Blue Jays can finally break through against Oakland’s pitching.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Out of all starting pitchers, JP Sears's fastball spin rate of 2100 rpm is in the 10th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto's 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #26 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 108 games (+8.85 Units / 7% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.80 Units / 77% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.92 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.77

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