Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 8/9/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Blue Jays sit at 53-62, marking a below-average season, while the Athletics are even further behind at 48-68, confirming a dismal year. This matchup kicks off a fresh series, and given their records, this game may be critical for both squads in a bid to salvage some pride as the season progresses.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays got a win over the Baltimore Orioles. In this game, the Blue Jays are projected to start Jose Berrios, who, despite being ranked as the 144th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable ERA of 4.11 this season. Yet, advanced projections indicate he may have been fortunate, as his 5.26 xERA suggests potential regression. Berrios' average performance aligns with the Athletics' struggle to capitalize on weaknesses, notably their high strikeout rate, ranking 2nd in the league.

On the opposite side, Oakland will send out Mitch Spence. While he carries an average ERA of 4.40, Spence's low strikeout percentage plays into the hands of a Blue Jays lineup that has been among the least strikeout-prone in MLB. This could provide an edge for Toronto’s offense, which currently ranks 19th overall yet has shown moments of promise.

Betting markets have set the Blue Jays' moneyline at -135, reflecting a belief in their slight edge, with an implied team total of 4.50 runs. The Athletics, despite their struggles, can be dangerous with their power, currently ranking 4th in the league for home runs. As the game approaches, the matchup of Berrios versus Spence will be crucial in determining which team can exploit the other's weaknesses.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (85.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Oakland Athletics bats as a group grade out 5th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's 2161-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 25th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Joey Loperfido hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+20.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.29 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.