Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Pick For 4/11/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -130, Rangers -1.5 110
• Money Line: Athletics 160, Rangers -185
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 37%
• Texas Rangers - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 36.18%
• Texas Rangers - 63.82%

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 11, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Oakland Athletics at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a record of 7-5, are having a great season, while the Athletics, with a record of 4-8, are struggling. This American League West matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who has started two games this year. Although Gray's statistics may not be impressive, with an ERA of 6.14, he is ranked as the #181 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On average, Gray is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs in this game.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher JP Sears. Sears has also started two games this year, but his performance has been less than stellar, with an ERA of 8.68. According to our Power Rankings, Sears is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs in this game.

The Rangers have a strong offense, ranking #5 in MLB in team batting average and #5 in team home runs this season. Their power could pose a challenge for Sears, who is a high-flyball pitcher. However, the Athletics have a solid ranking in stolen bases, which could give them an advantage on the basepaths.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Rangers rank #9 in MLB, while the Athletics rank #26. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, as a strong bullpen can help preserve a lead or mount a comeback.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are the favorites to win, with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but with the Rangers' strong offense and better overall performance this season, they have the edge going into this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Athletics will be looking to turn their season around with a win against their division rivals.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 13th-best infield defense is that of the the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Seth Brown is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Texas (#2-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray has a mean projection of 4.6 hits in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Wyatt Langford hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 168 games (+21.43 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+10.13 Units / 7% ROI)
• JP Sears has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 2 of his last 8 games (-5.30 Units / -52% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics 3.95 vs Texas Rangers 5.06

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