Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 7/31/2024

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Oakland Athletics on July 31, 2024, at Oracle Park, both teams are looking to make a statement in their interleague series. The Giants, with a 53-55 record, are having an average season, while the Athletics, struggling at 44-64, are enduring a terrible campaign. This game marks the second in their series, following a matchup that saw the Giants take the win.

The Giants will send left-hander Kyle Harrison to the mound. Harrison has shown promise this season, and his left-handed delivery could pose challenges for the Athletics' lineup. On the other side, the Athletics will counter with JP Sears, another southpaw. Both pitchers will need to be on their game, as each team's offense has distinct strengths and weaknesses.

San Francisco's offense ranks 15th in MLB in team batting average, reflecting an average performance. However, they struggle with power, ranking 23rd in home runs, and their speed on the basepaths is virtually non-existent, ranking 30th in stolen bases. Oakland, meanwhile, has a poor team batting average, ranking 27th, but they make up for it with power, holding the 4th spot in home runs. Their ability to steal bases is also lacking, ranking 22nd.

Jorge Soler has been the standout hitter for the Giants over the past week, boasting a .478 batting average and a 1.375 OPS in his last seven games. His performance has been a bright spot for San Francisco, contributing significantly with 11 hits, 8 runs, and 6 RBIs. For the Athletics, Seth Brown has been on fire, hitting .563 with a 1.588 OPS in his last six games, including 2 home runs and 4 RBIs.

Given the Giants' average season and the Athletics' struggles, this game presents an interesting matchup of strengths and weaknesses. The Giants' balanced offensive approach will clash with the Athletics' power-hitting capabilities, making for an intriguing contest at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ross Stripling is expected to tally an average of 4.2 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Shea Langeliers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (45.4 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

As it relates to his home runs, Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 40.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Shea Langeliers has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.35 vs San Francisco Giants 4.5

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