Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants Pick For 7/30/2024

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on July 30, 2024, at Oracle Park, there's a clear disparity between the two teams' seasons. The Giants, sitting at 53-55, are having an average year and still within reach of a Wild Card spot. In contrast, the Athletics are enduring a terrible season with a 44-64 record, making this interleague matchup a crucial opportunity for the Giants to gain ground.

The Giants are projected to start Robbie Ray, a left-handed pitcher ranked 48th best in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ray has been impressive in his limited action this season, boasting a 1-0 record with a stellar 1.80 ERA. However, his 3.54 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit lucky so far. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Ray to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters on average today.

Oakland will counter with JP Sears, another lefty. Sears has struggled this season, holding a 7-8 record with a 4.81 ERA. The projections are not favorable for Sears, expecting him to pitch 5.2 innings while giving up 2.9 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. The Giants' offense, ranked 12th best in MLB, might have a field day against one of the worst pitchers in the league.

San Francisco's offense has some strengths and weaknesses. They rank 15th in team batting average, but only 23rd in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. Meanwhile, Oakland's offense, despite being 17th best overall, is 27th in batting average but 4th in home runs. This dynamic could play into Ray’s high-flyball tendencies, possibly giving Oakland a slight edge in power-hitting scenarios.

The Giants' bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, could play a decisive role in this game, especially against the Athletics' 23rd-ranked bullpen. In tight situations, San Francisco’s relief corps could be the key to securing a win.

With the Giants a big betting favorite (-175) and an implied win probability of 62%, they seem to have the upper hand in this matchup. Oakland's implied win probability sits at 38%, making them a notable underdog. Based on these factors, the Giants are well-positioned to start this series with a victory.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. JP Sears has utilized his secondary pitches 6.7% more often this season (56.4%) than he did last year (49.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Robbie Ray.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler Nevin has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Yastrzemski, Derek Hill, David Villar, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Casey Schmitt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+20.00 Units / 400% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.71 vs San Francisco Giants 4.47

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