Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres Prediction For 6/12/2024

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on June 12, 2024, at Petco Park, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Padres, with a 35-35 record, are having an average season and sit mid-pack in the standings. Meanwhile, the Athletics, at 26-42, are enduring a tough season and rank near the bottom of the league.

The Padres are projected to start Michael King, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 42nd best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a solid 3.58 ERA, King's 4.45 FIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate this season. Nonetheless, he projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters, which bodes well for San Diego.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with Hogan Harris, a lefty who has made only two starts this year but boasts a stellar 2.21 ERA. However, his 4.22 xFIP indicates he’s also been lucky, and projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, are not favorable. Harris is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out only 2.9 batters.

Offensively, the Padres have a significant edge. They rank 7th overall in MLB and lead the league in team batting average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been particularly hot, batting .423 with a 1.329 OPS over the last week, including three home runs and six runs scored in six games. In contrast, the Athletics’ offense is ranked 28th, though they do have power, ranking 5th in team home runs. Tyler Soderstrom has been the standout for Oakland recently, hitting .286 with an .875 OPS over the past week.

Bullpen performances further tilt the scales in favor of the Padres, who have the 11th best bullpen according to Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Athletics’ bullpen is surprisingly strong, ranked 2nd, and could play a crucial role if the game is close late.

With the Padres being sizable favorites and projected to score 4.57 runs, they have a 63% implied win probability. Given the Athletics’ struggles and the pitching mismatch, San Diego looks well-positioned to take the third game of this interleague series.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Seth Brown has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average hurler, Michael King has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.60 Units / 77% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+11.05 Units / 16% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.82 vs San Diego Padres 5.11

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