Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 7/14/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Michael Mercado - Phillies

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Oakland Athletics in an interleague matchup on July 14, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This is the third game of the series, with the Phillies looking to extend their strong season record of 62-33 against the struggling Athletics, who sit at 36-61. The Phillies boast one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking 3rd in team batting average and 5th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics' offense has been a significant weakness, ranking 27th overall and 28th in batting average, despite a surprisingly good 7th place in home runs.

Philadelphia is projected to start Michael Mercado, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough season with a 7.04 ERA and a 1-1 record over his two starts. While his 6.05 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky, he still ranks as the 294th best starting pitcher in MLB, out of about 350. On the other side, the Athletics will counter with Joey Estes, another right-hander who sports a 5.53 ERA and a 3-4 record in his 11 starts. Like Mercado, Estes has been unlucky with a 4.95 xFIP, but his performance has been generally poor as well.

The Phillies' offensive firepower should have a significant edge against Estes, who is a high-flyball pitcher. Given the Phillies' 5th-place ranking in home runs, Estes might find it difficult to keep balls in the park. However, his low walk rate (5.8 BB%) might mitigate one of Philadelphia's strengths, as they rank 4th in walks.

In terms of recent performances, the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber has been hot over the last week, batting .294 with a 1.184 OPS, 2 home runs, and 5 RBIs in 5 games. Brent Rooker has been Oakland's standout, hitting .409 with a 1.200 OPS and 8 runs scored over his last 6 games.

While the Phillies are the heavy betting favorite with an implied win probability of 69%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, pegs their win probability at a more modest 58%. This suggests potential value in betting on the Athletics, given the discrepancy. Despite their struggles, the Athletics' bullpen ranks 10th in Power Rankings, suggesting they might keep the game closer than expected.

Overall, the Phillies' potent offense and home-field advantage make them the clear favorite, but the Athletics' bullpen and recent hitting surge from Rooker could make this an interesting contest.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes's 2412-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 79th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Lawrence Butler has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 94.8-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Bats such as Johan Rojas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joey Estes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 80 games (+22.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.76 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.8

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