Oakland Athletics at New York Mets Prediction For 8/15/2024

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on August 15, 2024, this Interleague matchup presents an interesting clash between two teams with contrasting fortunes this season. The Mets, currently sporting a record of 62-58, are having an above-average year and aim to build on their recent performance, while the Athletics (51-70) are looking to snap a disappointing stretch.

In their last contest, which was part of this series, the Mets managed to put together a convincing 9-1 victory. The Mets are projected to start left-hander Jose Quintana, who has had a rollercoaster season with a 6-8 record and a 4.10 ERA. Although he ranks as the 166th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, his ability to limit earned runs (projected at 2.4) makes him a tough opponent for a high-strikeout Athletics offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Mitch Spence is expected to take the mound for the Athletics. His performance this year has been average, holding a 4.33 ERA, and while he has shown flashes of promise with a lower expected ERA of 3.76, his struggles with walks (projected at 1.7) may prove costly against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs with 132 this season.

With the Mets' offense leading the league in power and Quintana's favorable matchup against the Athletics' strikeout-heavy lineup, New York emerges as a strong betting favorite, carrying a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs. The projections suggest that while the Mets hold a respectable chance to win, their recent form and favorable matchup may lead to a more commanding performance than expected.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (85.2% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana's 90.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 5th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pete Alonso has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 96.4-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.06 vs New York Mets 4.74

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