Oakland Athletics at New York Mets Pick For 8/13/2024

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Paul Blackburn - Mets

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On August 13, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Oakland Athletics at Citi Field in the first game of their interleague matchup. The Mets currently sit at 61-57, enjoying an above-average season, while the Athletics are struggling at 50-69, marking a disappointing campaign. The Mets are coming off a lopsided loss to the Seattle Mariners, where they were defeated 12-1, while the Athletics recently managed a win against the Toronto Blue Jays, taking the game 8-4.

The matchup pits Paul Blackburn against Ross Stripling, both right-handed pitchers. Blackburn has had a mixed season, with a 5-2 record and a respectable 3.86 ERA, but advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky, as indicated by his 4.41 FIP. He has the advantage of facing a high-strikeout Athletics lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. This could play into Blackburn's strength as a low-strikeout pitcher with a 19.4 K% this season.

On the other hand, Stripling has been struggling, holding a dismal 2-11 record and a 5.72 ERA. The projections indicate he is likely to allow around 3.0 earned runs today, but his season has been marked by inconsistency.

Offensively, the Mets rank 11th in MLB, with their best hitter, Francisco Lindor, showing strong form lately, batting .370 over the last week. Meanwhile, the Athletics' offense, despite ranking 20th overall, showcases power with 132 home runs this season. However, their poor batting average of .227 contributes to an overall lack of consistency.

As the Mets look to bounce back from their recent defeat, they are favored with a high implied team total of 4.44 runs for this matchup. With Blackburn on the mound, they will aim to capitalize on their offensive strengths against an Athletics team that has struggled to find consistency this season.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Seth Brown has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Oakland Athletics ranks them as the #5 team in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Paul Blackburn's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (68.5% vs. 61.4% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has been lucky given the .045 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.23 vs New York Mets 4.8

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