Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 6/15/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Oakland Athletics at Target Field on June 15, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Twins, holding a record of 38-32, are having an above-average season and are currently in the mix for a playoff spot. Conversely, the Athletics are struggling with a 26-46 record, reflecting a tough season.

Minnesota will send Bailey Ober to the mound, who, despite a 5.13 ERA, has been better than his surface stats suggest. His 4.13 xFIP indicates some bad luck, and he remains a solid pitcher, ranked 50th in MLB according to advanced metrics. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Ober to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out 6.6 batters, which are favorable numbers. However, his high flyball rate (42%) could be a concern against the Athletics' power-heavy lineup, which ranks 5th in home runs with 80 on the season.

Joey Estes will start for Oakland, and while his 4.78 ERA is below average, his 3.54 xERA suggests he's been unlucky. Despite this, THE BAT X projections aren't kind to Estes, forecasting 4.9 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed. Estes's strikeout numbers (4.1 per game) are also below average, which could be problematic against a Twins offense that ranks 12th overall and 9th in home runs.

The Twins' offense has been led by a red-hot Carlos Correa over the past week. Correa has posted a .500 batting average and a 1.179 OPS in his last seven games, driving in 7 runs and scoring 9 times. In contrast, the Athletics' standout hitter, Tyler Soderstrom, has also been impressive, with a .280 average and .997 OPS, including 3 home runs in the same span.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Twins ranked 7th and the Athletics an impressive 3rd. However, the Twins are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -200 and an implied win probability of 64%, compared to the Athletics' +170 and 36%. Based on the current odds, the Twins have an implied team total of 4.64 runs, while the Athletics sit at 3.36.

With Minnesota's solid bullpen, a potent offense, and Bailey Ober's potential for better performance, the Twins look well-positioned to take this game in the series against the struggling Athletics.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes's high usage percentage of his fastball (56.3% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Seth Brown has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all SPs, Bailey Ober's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 21st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Trevor Larnach's footspeed has decreased this year. His 26.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.68 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.1% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.57 vs Minnesota Twins 4.71

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