Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Pick For 6/25/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels host the Oakland Athletics on June 25, 2024, for the second game of their series at Angel Stadium. Both teams are having rough seasons, with the Angels sitting at 31-46 and the Athletics at 29-52. Yesterday, the Angels secured a 5-1 victory over the Athletics, with Taylor Ward leading the charge.

On the mound, the Angels will start Tyler Anderson, a left-handed pitcher with a 6-7 record and an impressive 2.48 ERA. Despite his strong ERA, Anderson's peripheral stats suggest he has been lucky, with a 5.09 xFIP indicating potential regression. Anderson's low strikeout rate (16.4%) may actually work in his favor against an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts. In his last start on June 19, Anderson pitched well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings.

The Athletics counter with Mitch Spence, a right-hander who has split his time between the bullpen and the rotation. Spence holds a 4-3 record and a solid 3.86 ERA. However, his projections for today's game are less favorable, with an expected 5.9 hits and 2.9 earned runs allowed over 5.4 innings. In his last start on June 20, Spence pitched six innings, giving up two earned runs and striking out seven.

Offensively, the Angels rank 17th in MLB, with their strengths lying in home runs (14th) and stolen bases (10th). Taylor Ward has been their standout hitter, boasting 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. The Athletics, on the other hand, struggle at the plate, ranking 26th overall. Despite this, they have shown power, ranking 7th in home runs, led by JJ Bleday's 11 homers and .799 OPS.

The Angels' bullpen is a weak spot, ranking 30th, while the Athletics' bullpen is a bright spot, ranking 3rd. This could play a crucial role in a close game, as both teams have implied win probabilities suggesting a tight contest. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Angels have a 52% chance to win, aligning with their moneyline odds of -120.

With both teams struggling this season, today's game will be a battle of underperforming offenses and inconsistent pitching. The Angels' slight edge in projections and home-field advantage could be the deciding factors in this matchup.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, batters like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Michael Stefanic is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+8.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+10.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.6 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.55

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