Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 6/24/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Medina - Athletics
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics are set to open a series on June 24, 2024, at Angel Stadium. Both teams are mired in disappointing seasons, with the Angels holding a 30-46 record and the Athletics sitting at 29-51. Despite their struggles, this American League West matchup features intriguing pitching storylines and contrasting offensive strengths and weaknesses.

Griffin Canning will toe the rubber for the Angels, bringing a 2-8 record and a 5.02 ERA into this contest. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Canning ranks as the 219th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating his below-average performance this season. His projections for this game include 5.5 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and 5.5 strikeouts. However, his low strikeout rate (15.4 K%) could be mitigated by facing an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Luis Medina will start for the Athletics with a 1-2 record and a 4.71 ERA. Although Medina's ERA appears average, his 5.64 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and may regress. His projections for the game aren't promising, with 4.8 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs allowed, and only 4.0 strikeouts. Adding to his woes, Medina's hits and walks projections (5.2 and 2.1, respectively) are among the worst.

Offensively, the Angels rank 17th in MLB, highlighted by their 10th-best stolen base ranking and 14th-best home run ranking. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicative of inconsistent hitting. In contrast, the Athletics' offense is one of the weakest, ranking 26th overall and 28th in batting average, despite a surprising 7th-best ranking in home runs.

Bullpen performance further skews in favor of the Athletics, whose relief corps ranks 3rd, while the Angels' bullpen is dead last at 30th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the latter innings of a close game.

Betting markets and projections both suggest a tightly contested game, with the Angels carrying a slight edge. The current moneyline gives the Angels a 52% implied win probability, aligning with THE BAT X's projections. With both teams struggling and a pair of subpar starters on the mound, this game could hinge on which bullpen falters and which offense capitalizes on opportunities.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Recording 94 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Luis Medina checks in at the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.J. Bleday is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.79 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.88

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