Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 12, 2024, they find themselves in a critical matchup in the American League West. The Astros, with a record of 77-68, are enjoying an above-average season and are positioned to make a push for the postseason. In contrast, the Athletics sit at 64-82, reflecting a disappointing year. With the stakes high for the Astros, they will look to rebound from a couple of losses in a row to the A's.

Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros, bringing an impressive 14-6 record and an excellent ERA of 2.97. Ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB, Valdez is a high-groundball pitcher, which could bode well against the Athletics’ powerful lineup that ranks 5th in the league with 182 home runs this season. However, Valdez will need to be cautious, as the Athletics’ offense, while struggling overall, can capitalize on mistakes.

On the other hand, Mitch Spence is set to start for Oakland. Despite a 7-9 record and a mediocre ERA of 4.42, Spence has shown some signs of potential, with an xERA of 3.86 indicating he may have been unlucky this season. However, facing the Astros—who rank 8th in MLB offensively and 3rd in batting average—could prove to be a challenge as they have been hitting the ball well.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the Astros are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -240, suggesting that the betting market favors their chances significantly. The projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.83 runs for the Astros, making them the clear team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #9 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yordan Alvarez as the 3rd-best batter in the game when it comes to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 109 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+17.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.74 vs Houston Astros 4.93

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.