Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 4/21/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -135, Guardians -1.5 115
• Money Line: Athletics 160, Guardians -185
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 37%
• Cleveland Guardians - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 37.44%
• Cleveland Guardians - 62.56%

Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the Oakland Athletics on April 21, 2024, at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will look to capitalize on their strong season record of 15-6, while the Athletics aim to turn their season around with a record of 8-13.

The Guardians have been having a great season, boasting an above-average offense, ranking 13th in MLB. However, their power-hitting has been lacking, as they currently sit at the bottom of the league in team home runs. On the other hand, their ability to steal bases has been a bright spot, with a ranking of 7th in the league.

The Athletics, unfortunately, have been struggling this season, with a below-average offense ranking of 27th in MLB. Their team batting average is also at the bottom of the league. However, they have showcased their speed on the basepaths, ranking 5th in stolen bases.

In terms of pitching, the Guardians are projected to start right-hander Tanner Bibee. Bibee has had a solid season so far, with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 4.82. However, his expected ERA suggests that he may regress in future performances. On average, Bibee is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow 1.9 earned runs.

The Athletics will counter with right-hander Ross Stripling, who has had a tough season with a winless record of 0-4 and an ERA of 5.32. However, his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Stripling is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs.

Looking at the bullpen, the Guardians have the 12th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Athletics rank 24th. This could give the Guardians an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Guardians are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -185, giving them an implied win probability of 63%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

With their strong season record and a more favorable pitching matchup, the Guardians have the upper hand in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Athletics will be looking to defy the odds and turn their season around.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Since the start of last season, Nick Allen's 1.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cracking 5 home runs in the last two weeks' worth of games, Josh Naylor has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Cleveland Guardians (17.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 137 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Athletics vs Guardians Prediction: Athletics 3.24 - Guardians 3.96

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