Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox Pick For 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • J.T. Ginn - Athletics
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On September 14, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Oakland Athletics at Guaranteed Rate Field for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the White Sox sitting at a dismal 33-115 record, while the Athletics hold a slightly better mark of 65-83. The Athletics have been a better overall team, ranking 19th in offense, but their batting average is languishing at 24th. Meanwhile, the White Sox rank 30th in offense, batting average, and home runs, showcasing their struggles at the plate.

Last night, the Athletics edged out the White Sox, marking another tough loss for Chicago. Today's matchup features pitchers Chris Flexen for the White Sox and J.T. Ginn for the Athletics, both right-handers. Flexen has had a rough year with a 2-14 record and a poor 5.26 ERA, placing him as the 300th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His average projection of allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.3 hits today does not inspire confidence. In contrast, J.T. Ginn, while also not having a stellar season, holds an average ERA of 4.58. His 3.82 xFIP suggests he could be due for some positive regression.

Flexen’s low strikeout rate will be tested against the Athletics’ powerful offense, which has hit 182 home runs, ranking 5th in the league. Conversely, Ginn’s groundball tendencies should neutralize a White Sox lineup devoid of power. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Athletics are favored at -160, while the White Sox are underdogs at +140. If they can get offensive support, the Athletics could continue their recent momentum against a struggling Chicago squad.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, J.T. Ginn is projected to throw 83 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.3 mph compared to last year's 94.9 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has relied on his non-fastballs 8.5% more often this season (63%) than he did last year (54.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#1-worst of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Korey Lee ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• Nicky Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 5.37 vs Chicago White Sox 4

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