Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Basso - Athletics
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On September 18, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Oakland Athletics at Wrigley Field in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently at 77-74, are fighting for any remaining chances at contention, while the Athletics hold a disappointing record of 66-86. Notably, the Athletics edged out the Cubs 4-3 in their last encounter on September 17, adding to the pressure for Chicago as they aim to even the series.

Justin Steele, projected to start for the Cubs, brings a rank of 15th among MLB starting pitchers, showcasing his elite status this season. With a solid 3.09 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 5-5, he has shown flashes of brilliance on the mound. However, his projections indicate that he may not go deep into the game, averaging just 4.8 innings, which could limit his impact. His ability to limit earned runs is highlighted by a projected 1.5 earned runs today. Meanwhile, Brady Basso, a below-average pitcher for the Athletics, has been lucky with a 1.23 ERA and projects to face a patient Cubs lineup. His low walk rate may negate the Cubs' strength of drawing walks, potentially giving him an edge.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 12th best in MLB, while the Athletics sit 18th. Ian Happ has been solid all season, but Michael Busch's recent surge, with a .400 batting average over the last week, adds depth to the Cubs' batting order. On the other hand, Brent Rooker continues to shine for Oakland with a 0.956 OPS this season, posing a threat for the Cubs.

With the projections favoring the Cubs to score around 4.31 runs and the Athletics a meager 3.34, Chicago is positioned as the betting favorite. Given the circumstances and home-field advantage, this could be the opportunity for the Cubs to turn their fortunes around and capitalize on the Athletics' struggles.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Brady Basso has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has experienced some positive variance this year. His 30.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all starters, Justin Steele's fastball velocity of 91.1 mph is in the 14th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Chicago ranks as the #2 club in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (16.8% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.02 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 72 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.34 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31

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