Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 16, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this Interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 76-73, are having an average season and seeking to secure a strong finish. Meanwhile, the Athletics are struggling with a record of 65-85, marking a disappointing year for the franchise. This series opener is particularly important for the Cubs as they aim to solidify their standing in a competitive league.

In their last game, the Cubs showcased their offensive strength, with Michael Busch leading the charge, recording 11 hits and 4 home runs over the past week. The Cubs' offense ranks 14th in MLB, and while they have struggled with power, hitting only the 20th most home runs, they excel in drawing walks, ranking 6th. This playstyle could be tested against Joey Estes, who has shown good control with a 4.9 BB% this year, potentially limiting the Cubs' patient approach at the plate.

Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs, boasting a solid 13-3 record and a stellar 3.03 ERA, which places him as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, his xFIP of 3.73 indicates he may have been a bit lucky this season. Facing him is Joey Estes, whose struggles have him ranked among the worst pitchers in the league. The projections suggest Imanaga will average 2.3 earned runs allowed and 6.8 strikeouts, which could bode well for the Cubs.

With a high implied team total of 4.61 runs, the Cubs are favored in this matchup, while the Athletics face an uphill battle with a low implied total of 3.39 runs. As these two teams clash at Wrigley Field, all eyes will be on how Imanaga handles the powerful Athletics lineup, which has hit the 5th most home runs in MLB this season.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Because groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball bats, Joey Estes and his 44.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler Nevin is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Shota Imanaga will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dansby Swanson's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80.6-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 away games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+18.10 Units / 60% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.39 vs Chicago Cubs 4.59

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