Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 7/11/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Medina - Athletics
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics are set to face off on July 11, 2024, at Fenway Park in the third game of their series. The Red Sox are having an above-average season with a 50-41 record, while the Athletics are struggling at 35-59. This American League matchup features two right-handed starters: Tanner Houck for the Red Sox and Luis Medina for the Athletics.

Tanner Houck, who ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, has been excellent this season with a 2.68 ERA and a 7-6 record over 18 starts. However, his 3.78 xERA suggests that he may have been a bit lucky and could regress. Houck projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 6.6 batters, and issuing 1.4 walks on average in this game. His high ground-ball rate (55 GB%) could neutralize the Athletics' power, as they rank 5th in MLB with 111 home runs.

Luis Medina, on the other hand, has had a tough season with a 4.37 ERA and a 2-3 record over seven starts. His 5.45 xFIP indicates he has also been fortunate and may perform worse going forward. Medina projects to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, and issuing 2.1 walks on average in this game. Despite facing a high-strikeout Red Sox offense (4th most strikeouts in MLB), Medina's low strikeout rate (15.9 K%) could be a disadvantage.

Offensively, Boston's lineup ranks 7th in MLB, boasting a solid combination of batting average (8th), home runs (9th), and stolen bases (6th). Rafael Devers has been particularly hot, hitting .304 with a 1.168 OPS, three home runs, and nine RBIs over the last week. Conversely, Oakland's offense ranks 25th, with a notable strength in power (5th in home runs) but struggles in batting average (28th) and stolen bases (21st). Brent Rooker has been a bright spot recently, hitting .474 with a 1.314 OPS over the last week.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Luis Medina has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Zack Gelof has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tyler Soderstrom hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.6% compared to 60.5% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.2 vs Boston Red Sox 5.75

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