New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Pick & Preview – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Yankees on August 28, 2024, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with contrasting fortunes in the standings. The Yankees sit at 78-55, enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals are languishing at 60-73, mired in below-average performance. This game marks the third in the series, and these teams have split the first two games, creating plenty of intrigue for today's contest.

The Yankees have been bolstered by Aaron Judge, who has been a force over the past week. Judge has racked up six home runs and eight RBIs in his last seven games, further solidifying his status as one of the best hitters in the league. Meanwhile, the Nationals are looking to turn things around despite a lackluster offense that ranks 21st in MLB this season.

On the mound, Washington's MacKenzie Gore is projected to start, bringing a 7-11 record and a 4.51 ERA into the game. Despite being ranked as the 144th best starting pitcher, his 3.64 FIP suggests he could be performing better than his numbers indicate. However, Gore's projections show a troubling average of 4.8 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs allowed, which could spell trouble against a potent Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in overall offensive performance.

In contrast, Yankees' Carlos Rodon, with a 14-8 record and a 4.16 ERA, ranks 81st among MLB starters. Rodon is expected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs, making him a favorable matchup against the Nationals' struggling offense. The projections indicate that the Yankees hold a significant advantage, with an implied team total of 5.17 runs, compared to the Nationals' 3.83 runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.4% compared to 39.6% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, notching a .486 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .431 — a .055 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94.3 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (95.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Juan Yepez is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.06 vs Washington Nationals 4.03

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.