New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/27/2024

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays gear up to host the New York Yankees on June 27, 2024, fans can expect a classic American League East showdown at Rogers Centre. This game pits two teams with contrasting seasons against each other. The Blue Jays, with a record of 36-43, have struggled, while the Yankees, boasting a 52-30 mark, are enjoying a stellar campaign.

Toronto will send Jose Berrios to the mound. While his 3.13 ERA indicates a strong season, his xFIP of 4.21 suggests he's been fortunate and might regress. Berrios's 6-5 record over 15 starts and his below-average ranking of #137 among starting pitchers reflect his up-and-down performance. Despite his solid ERA, Berrios projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 4.2 batters through 5.0 innings, underscoring inconsistent outings.

The Yankees counter with lefty Carlos Rodon, who enters the game with a 9-3 record and a 3.28 ERA. Ranked #70 among starters, Rodon has also been a bit lucky, as evidenced by his 4.31 xFIP. He projects to allow 2.8 earned runs, strike out 5.3 batters, and go 5.6 innings. Given the Blue Jays' lack of power—ranking 27th in home runs—Rodon's high flyball rate could work to his advantage.

On offense, the Blue Jays rank 23rd overall, struggling in team batting average (22nd) and home runs. In contrast, the Yankees are an offensive powerhouse, ranking 3rd overall and 2nd in home runs. While both teams have challenges on the basepaths, with the Yankees and Blue Jays ranking 26th and 25th in stolen bases, respectively, this game may hinge on power and pitching.

Toronto's bullpen has also been a weak point, ranked 24th in the Power Rankings, compared to the Yankees' more middling 17th-ranked bullpen. Advanced projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate a close game, with the Yankees holding a slight edge at 53% win probability compared to the Blue Jays' 47%.

Given the current odds, backing the Blue Jays as an underdog at +120 might offer value, especially if Berrios can navigate through the Yankees' patient lineup, which leads MLB in walks. However, the Yankees' potent offense and Rodon's solid performance provide a strong case for their favored status at -140. Expect a tightly contested game as these division rivals face off in Toronto.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Benjamin Rice has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has averaged 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 56% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.99 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.3

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