New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 6/28/2024

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the New York Yankees on June 28, 2024, at Rogers Centre for the second game of their American League East series. The Blue Jays, with a below-average 37-43 record, are looking to rebound against the division-leading Yankees, who boast an impressive 52-31 mark.

Toronto will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound. Despite his 4-6 record, Kikuchi has been better than his win-loss tally suggests, sporting a solid 3.65 ERA over 15 starts. Ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Kikuchi's performance has been steady, though he tends to struggle with allowing hits and walks. However, his low 5.6% walk rate could neutralize one of the Yankees' strengths, as they lead MLB in drawing walks.

On the other side, Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. Stroman has been effective with a 6-3 record and a stellar 3.08 ERA over 15 starts. However, his 4.67 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate, and regression could be on the horizon. Stroman's low strikeout rate (17.1%) might play into the hands of a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled this season, ranking 23rd overall, 22nd in batting average, 27th in home runs, and 25th in stolen bases. Their best hitter over the past week has been Spencer Horwitz, who boasts a .333 average and a 1.412 OPS over six games. Contrastingly, the Yankees rank 3rd in overall offense and 2nd in home runs, with Trent Grisham leading the charge recently with a .444 average and 1.611 OPS over five games.

Both teams' bullpens have shown vulnerabilities, with Toronto’s relievers ranked 25th and New York’s sitting at 19th in the Power Rankings. Given these dynamics and the projected 8.5 run game total, expect a closely contested matchup. Betting markets reflect this, with the Yankees slightly favored at -120 and the Blue Jays at +100, suggesting a competitive game in Toronto.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (60.3% compared to 45.4% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 101.9-mph mark last season has fallen off to 99.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games (+6.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.84 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.23

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