New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/15/2024

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Yankees 1.5 -210, Blue Jays -1.5 180
• Money Line: Yankees -110, Blue Jays -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 50%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 51.03%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 48.97%

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 15, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. This game is an American League East matchup showcasing two teams with different records this season.

The Blue Jays come into this game with an 8-8 record, which can be considered average. Meanwhile, the Yankees boast a 12-4 record, indicating a great season thus far. With the Blue Jays being the home team, they will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd.

Taking the mound for the Blue Jays is right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt. This season, Bassitt has started three games, with a win-loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.06. Despite his ERA, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Bassitt to be the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has performed better than his numbers indicate. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower SIERA (4.55) compared to ERA and a higher xERA (6.21), suggest some luck factors in his performances.

Opposing Bassitt will be Luis Gil, a right-handed pitcher for the Yankees. Gil has made two starts this year, accumulating a 0-0 record and an impressive 3.00 ERA. Although his xFIP (4.09) indicates some potential regression, Gil has showcased solid skills on the mound.

This game marks the first meeting between these two teams this season, adding an element of excitement to the matchup. While the Blue Jays' offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB, their team batting average of 5th shows promise. On the other hand, the Yankees' offense ranks 6th, displaying their strength at the plate despite a low team batting average of 29th.

In terms of bullpen strength, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Yankees to have the 5th best bullpen in MLB, while the Blue Jays come in at 12th. Both teams have capable relievers to rely on in crucial moments of the game.

The Blue Jays' best hitter this season has been Justin Turner, who has been on fire over the past week. In his last seven games, Turner has recorded a .563 batting average and an impressive 1.382 OPS. For the Yankees, their top hitter recently has been Juan Soto, who has accumulated 8 hits, 6 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs in his last six games.

According to the current odds, this game is expected to be a close one, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a moderate-scoring affair.

While the Blue Jays have had an average season so far, the Yankees have been performing exceptionally well. However, in a game that could go either way, it will be interesting to see how the Blue Jays' offense matches up against the Yankees' pitching staff.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#2-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees projected offense profiles as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has gone to his sinker 5.6% more often this year (44.9%) than he did last season (39.3%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's 3.1% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) is in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays bats collectively rank among the worst in Major League Baseball since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction: Yankees 4.92 - Blue Jays 4.56

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