New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 7/3/2025

The current series between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays has been a nightmare for the Yankees. They have lost three straight games to Toronto, helping the Blue Jays to draw even with them in the AL East standings. On Thursday, the Yankees will look to avoid a four-game sweep, while Toronto looks to end the day in sole possession of the AL East lead. Continue reading to get my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction for Thursday night.

Our Yankees vs Blue Jays Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5 runs
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025 – 7:07 PM
• Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt (NYY 4‑4, 3.09 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (TOR 7‑4, 4.29 ERA)
• Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Broadcast: YES, Sportsnet, MLB Network

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Clarke Schmidt has been remarkably steady, with a 3.09 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 11 quality starts in 15 outings.
• Chris Bassitt has been inconsistent, with a 4.29 ERA, allowing 8 earned runs in two innings during his last start.

Bullpen usage

• The Yankees’ bullpen has shown cracks. Devin Williams took the loss in Wednesday’s thriller and admitted frustration with his performance.
• The Blue Jays’ relief corps is deep. Jeff Hoffman is now at 20 saves, while Yariel Rodriguez and Brendon Little have been rock-solid setup arms.

Recent team streaks

• Yankees have dropped three straight to Toronto and could be swept in this huge series.
• Blue Jays are on a four-game winning streak overall and own the division lead with a head-to-head edge.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Only five teams have a worse runline record than the Yankees this season.
• Toronto has gone over the total 57.8% of the time this season, the highest percentage in the league.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Model Projection

Score Projection: Yankees 4 – Blue Jays 3

Win Probability: Yankees 54% / Blue Jays 46%

Final Thoughts

The Yankees are seeking to prevent a demoralizing sweep and respond behind a reliable starter in Schmidt, while the Blue Jays’ bats and bullpen depth will challenge the road favorites. The series has tilted more toward defense and pitching than brute force, and I expect that to continue to be the case tonight. The Under 8.5 emerges as a sharp play, considering Schmidt’s command, Bassitt’s tendency to limit big innings at home, and a close finish. With both clubs fighting for AL East position, expect a low-scoring, high-tension affair.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.