New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 7/1/2025

This Tuesday at 3:07 p.m. ET, the New York Yankees (48‑36) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (46‑38) at Rogers Centre. After the Blue Jays won Monday’s opener 5‑4, this is a crucial Canada Day showdown. DraftKings lists NYY as the favorite, with the low total suggesting a pitching duel. Here, I make my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction for Tuesday afternoon.

Our Yankees vs Blue Jays Pick

Pick: New York Yankees moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 – 3:07 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs Kevin Gausman
• Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Broadcast: YES, Sportsnet, TVA Sports, MLB Network

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Max Fried brings an elite 1.92 ERA, 104 K vs 21 BB over 108 IP. He’s averaged 6.4 IP per start and has gone at least 6 IP in 12 of 17 starts.
• Kevin Gausman has a 4.21 ERA, 90 K and 25 BB in 94 IP. Four of his last seven outings saw 4+ earned runs.

Bullpen usage

• Yankees’ middle relief is thinner after Fernando Cruz’s oblique injury. Closer Devin Williams remains sharp.
• Blue Jays bullpen has a 3.54 ERA over the past two weeks, anchored by Jeff Hoffman and Brendon Little.

Recent team streaks

• Yankees have won 5 of their last 7 head‑to‑head series, but dropped Monday’s game.
• Yankees are 11‑6‑0 ATS in Fried’s starts and 7‑1 following a loss.
• Blue Jays are 4‑1 over their last five games, and 12‑15 vs left‑handed starters.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Yankees have been moneyline favorites in 75 games, winning 60%.
• Blue Jays are 53.1 % in underdog spots.
• Over/under has hit ‘over’ just 2 of the Yankees’ last 10 games.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Model Projection

Score Projection: Yankees 5 – Blue Jays 3

Win Probability: Yankees 55 %, Blue Jays 45 %

Final Thoughts

Max Fried is the best pitcher on the field this afternoon, and while Toronto’s bullpen has held firm recently, the weakened Yankees’ middle relief looks likely to preserve a Fried‑led lead. The Blue Jays’ batters have struggled vs southpaws, with a sub‑.235 average. Given the ace’s dominance, strong runline record, and consistent road form, backing the Yankees straight up offers value. Expect low to moderate scoring, but enough offense for New York to hold serve.